Explainer: What does Poland’s drone incident mean for NATO, war in Ukraine?

On Sep. 9, 2025, Russian drones entered Poland's airspace. (Credit: Wojtek Radwanski/AFP/Getty Images)

On Sept. 9, a wave of Russian-made drones entered Polish airspace near the country’s eastern border, prompting Warsaw to invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). 

The move has raised questions about NATO’s next steps and whether the war in Ukraine could spill beyond its borders.

Polish officials say at least 20 drones crossed into their territory before being shot down or leaving Polish airspace. No one was injured, but Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the situation “the most serious security breach since World War II.”

Under Article 4 of NATO's founding treaty, members can bring any issue of concern, especially related to the security of a member country, for discussion within the North Atlantic Council.  

Poland’s decision to invoke Article 4 does not trigger a collective military response, but it signals that Warsaw takes the incident as a threat that requires urgent discussion.

“This is a provocation to NATO,” said STU Communications Professor Jamie Gillies. 

“Is this what Putin wants? Is this what NATO wants? There’s a showdown here … but I’m cautiously pessimistic that this could lead to something bigger.”

Gillies said the main question now is whether NATO will respond diplomatically or by increasing its military presence in Eastern Europe. 

“Do you have a series of diplomatic talks and everyone backs down, or does NATO decide to put more troops at the border or even in Ukraine itself? Where does this lead?” he said.

Shaun Narine, an international relations professor at St. Thomas University, urged caution in drawing conclusions too quickly. 

“I honestly don’t know what happened,” he said. “There are plausible explanations from both sides — that it was a deliberate Russian provocation testing the West’s red lines or simply a mistake caused by signal jamming.”

Narine said the drones didn’t hit targets in Poland, which could support the idea that they were not intentionally aimed at Polish territory. 

But he acknowledged that many NATO officials believe the scale of the incursion — more than 20 drones over several hours — suggests coordination.

“This puts NATO in a difficult position,” Narine said. “Escalating could be disastrous, but doing nothing could embolden Russia.”

The incident comes as NATO members increase military spending and troop deployments in Eastern Europe. 

Poland, which shares a long border with Ukraine, has invested heavily in its defence and hosts a significant number of NATO troops.

“My sense is NATO leaders will probably say, ‘Yes, this was a violation of Polish airspace. No one was hurt. Don’t do it again,'” said Gillies. “But if Russia does it again, if it was intentional, all these ‘what ifs’ become little cuts that could lead to something bigger.”

Poland and its allies have called for calm, while NATO consultations continue. 

Whether this week’s incident will remain an isolated event or become a turning point in the conflict will depend on how Moscow and NATO respond in the upcoming days.